Many real-world combinatorial problems involve uncertain parameters, which can be predicted given contextual features and historical data. These `predict-then-optimize' or `contextual optimization' problems have gained significant attention: end-to-end training methods can now minimize the downstream task cost rather than the predictive error. However, despite their effectiveness, these decision-focused learning (DFL) approaches often rely on repeated solving of the underlying combinatorial optimization problem during training, making them computationally expensive and difficult to scale. We reframe the learning problem as a cost-sensitive multi-output regression problem: multi-output due to the combinatorial problem having multiple uncertain parameters, and cost-sensitive due to the downstream task cost being the real target. Our technical contribution is the formalization of multiple loss function components that follow from this reframing: cost-insensitive normalization, decision-aware asymmetric penalization of over- and underpredictions, and instance-based costs that mimic the true downstream task-based loss locally. These components require zero or one solve per training data instance, while requiring no further solves during training. Experiments show that the combination of loss components achieves comparable downstream task quality to the state of the art, while being significantly more efficient, enabling scaling to problem sizes that have not been tackled before with DFL.

In this work, we explore online convex optimization (OCO) and introduce a new condition and analysis that provides fast rates by exploiting the curvature of feasible sets. In online linear optimization, it is known that if the average gradient of loss functions exceeds a certain threshold, the curvature of feasible sets can be exploited by the follow-the-leader (FTL) algorithm to achieve a logarithmic regret. This study reveals that algorithms adaptive to the curvature of loss functions can also leverage the curvature of feasible sets. In particular, we first prove that if an optimal decision is on the boundary of a feasible set and the gradient of an underlying loss function is non-zero, then the algorithm achieves a regret bound of $O(\rho \log T)$ in stochastic environments. Here, $\rho > 0$ is the radius of the smallest sphere that includes the optimal decision and encloses the feasible set. Our approach, unlike existing ones, can work directly with convex loss functions, exploiting the curvature of loss functions simultaneously, and can achieve the logarithmic regret only with a local property of feasible sets. Additionally, the algorithm achieves an $O(\sqrt{T})$ regret even in adversarial environments, in which FTL suffers an $\Omega(T)$ regret, and achieves an $O(\rho \log T + \sqrt{C \rho \log T})$ regret in corrupted stochastic environments with corruption level $C$.

Decision making under uncertainty is commonly modelled as a process of competitive stochastic evidence accumulation to threshold (the drift-diffusion model). However, it is unknown how animals learn these decision thresholds. We examine threshold learning by constructing a reward function that averages over many trials to Wald's cost function that defines decision optimality. These rewards are highly stochastic and hence challenging to optimize, which we address in two ways: first, a simple two-factor reward-modulated learning rule derived from Williams' REINFORCE method for neural networks; and second, Bayesian optimization of the reward function with a Gaussian process. Bayesian optimization converges in fewer trials than REINFORCE but is slower computationally with greater variance. The REINFORCE method is also a better model of acquisition behaviour in animals and a similar learning rule has been proposed for modelling basal ganglia function.

For example, in personalized medical diagnostics, a model is built based on historical data to facilitate an optimal treatment for a new patient (Bica et al., 2021).

Bayesian decision theory outlines arigorous framework for making optimal decisions based on maximizing expected utility over a model posterior.

We propose a flexible gradient-based framework for learning linear programs from optimal decisions. Linear programs are often specified by hand, using prior knowledge of relevant costs and constraints. In some applications, linear programs must instead be learned from observations of optimal decisions. Learning from optimal decisions is a particularly challenging bilevel problem, and much of the related inverse optimization literature is dedicated to special cases. We tackle the general problem, learning all parameters jointly while allowing flexible parameterizations of costs, constraints, and loss functions. We also address challenges specific to learning linear programs, such as empty feasible regions and non-unique optimal decisions. Experiments show that our method successfully learns synthetic linear programs and minimum-cost multi-commodity flow instances for which previous methods are not directly applicable. We also provide a fast batch-mode PyTorch implementation of the homogeneous interior point algorithm, which supports gradients by implicit differentiation or backpropagation.

Many features of human and animal behavior can be understood in the framework of Bayesian inference and optimal decision making, but the biological substrate of such processes is not fully understood. Neural sampling provides a flexible code for probabilistic inference in high dimensions and explains key features of sensory responses under experimental manipulations of uncertainty. However, since it encodes uncertainty implicitly, across time and neurons, it remains unclear how such representations can be used for decision making. Here we propose a spiking network model that maps neural samples of a task-specific marginal distribution into an instantaneous representation of uncertainty via a procedure inspired by online kernel density estimation, so that its output can be readily used for decision making. Our model is consistent with experimental results at the level of single neurons and populations, and makes predictions for how neural responses and decisions could be modulated by uncertainty and prior biases. More generally, our work brings together conflicting perspectives on probabilistic brain computation.

Decision making under uncertainty is commonly modelled as a process of competitive stochastic evidence accumulation to threshold (the drift-diffusion model). However, it is unknown how animals learn these decision thresholds. We examine threshold learning by constructing a reward function that averages over many trials to Wald's cost function that defines decision optimality. These rewards are highly stochastic and hence challenging to optimize, which we address in two ways: first, a simple two-factor reward-modulated learning rule derived from Williams' REINFORCE method for neural networks; and second, Bayesian optimization of the reward function with a Gaussian process. Bayesian optimization converges in fewer trials than REINFORCE but is slower computationally with greater variance. The REINFORCE method is also a better model of acquisition behaviour in animals and a similar learning rule has been proposed for modelling basal ganglia function.